Wednesday, August 27th, 2014

2011 NFL Divisional Playoffs: Over/Under-ology

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We’ve looked at the total scores of every NFL postseason game since the end of the 2000 regular season to give you insight into the Over/Unders for this weekend’s playoff games.


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Here are the current Over/Unders for this weekend’s games:

Ravens-Steelers – 37
Packers-Falcons – 44
Seahawks-Bears – 41
Jets-Patriots – 45

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Going back to the 2000-2001 NFL playoffs, there have been 114 playoff games and 40 divisional round games.

Let’s first look at the this weekend’s lowest Over/Under, the Ravens-Steelers 37. Over the last ten years of divisonal round playoff games, 22 have gone Over 37, 13 have gone Under 37, and five have hit 37 exactly, and . Looking at all postseason games, it breaks down to 71-30-13.

Last season, three divisional round games were below or at 37 points, one of two times that’s happened over the last 10 seasons. Most years, only four playoff games go at or Under 37 points, but in this year’s first-round two games hit 37 exactly (including the Ravens win over the Chiefs) and one went under.

Next, the Seahawks and Bears at 41.
Divisional Playoffs (2001-2010) Over-Under-At 41: 17-22-1
All Postseason Games (’01-’11) O-U-A 41: 54-56-4

Last postseason, one more game went Over 41 points than went Under,
something that’s only happened three times out of the past ten playoff years.

What about the Packers-Falcons at 44?
Divisional Round (’01-’10) O-U-A 44: 17-23-0
All Postseason Games (’01-’11) O-U-A 44: 53-61-0

And finally, the Jets-Patriots at 45:
Divisional Round (’01-’10) O-U-A 45: 16-23-1
All Postseason Games (’01-’11) O-U-A 45: 51-61-2

Each of the past 10 years of playoffs has had at least one divisional round playoff game that went Over 45 points. Five years had two divisional round games go Over 45, and one year (’08) had three games go Over.

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