I’m hearing all kinds of sounds lately. Windows slamming shut. Trucks backing up. People saying goodbye, some perhaps laced with invective. They are all emanating from the Cubs.

Is there anything to feel good about for next year? I’m finding little. And I’m thinking that it might just be better to blow it up and get young. Now I know teams that can handle big payrolls rarely do this type of thing. They usually just retool, overpay for middling free agents and trade away prospects to plug holes. Not exactly the winning formula. Here’s what I see when I look at the Cubs…

1. Their best players will never be better than the best players on other contending teams. This is a big problem. Having a solid overall club is an asset. But ace pitchers, closers and big-time hitters win playoff series and trophies. Ramirez, Lee and Soriano are all aging. All prone to injury at some level.  And Soriano has been on a sharp decline for three years. Who’s the man? Who will carry the Cubs?
2. They don’t really have any good young players. I might make an exception for Randy Wells, Soto or Jake Fox, but even then those guys will all be 27 or 28 next year.
3. Their bullpen is in shambles. They have no closer. Who knows what Marmol brings next year. I love Guzman, but can he eat up 80-90 innings? It’s a pen in disarray.
4. The starting pitching is not as good as you think. Zambrano (if here), Dempster and Lilly are all solid but not spectacular. There is no ace. There is no guy who will intimidate and blow batters away. There is no pitcher that will come in and eat major innings. It’s a nice rotation. It’s just not likely to win chamionships. At least without a top-notch bullpen. (See #3)
5. The Coaches and GM are off their games. I suppose this could change some, but Hendry had an awful year. Piniella and Rothschild didn’t do us any favors either. The Cubs still throw the ball around too much, still don’t run bases well and certainly don’t play great defense. Piniella also looked like he wanted to go home. If he comes back, what happens if the Cubs start 9-15? 20-30? The media will be all over him. Will he be able to handle it again?
6. The farm system — from which all good things come — is subpar. There just aren’t that many top level prospects in the system. I suppose Colvin and Vitters show some potential. But overall it’s just not very good.

You could sign free agents, but there aren’t many good ones available. So it looks grim from where I’m sitting, alth0ugh it’s tinged with a healthy helping of 2009 disappointment. I’d be happy to be proven wrong by you. Or better yet the Cubs.

Looking at some of Lou Piniella’s moves in last night’s 3-2 loss…

Bob Brenly pointed out some great managing by Lou Piniella last night during the Cubs telecast. He mentioned how Fontenot was playing in and Lou waved him back and more toward the 2nd base bag. Sure enough, the hitter (I want to say Matsui) lined one right there and Fontenot made an easy play. That saved the game at that point.

One move I did not like in the least was Ryan Theriot running in the 8th. Soriano had just homered off Hawkins and then Theriot singled. D Lee fouled out and Bradley stepped to the plate. I totally wanted to see Bradley hit there — it’s why we signed him. So either Lou or Theriot decided to run there. Bad call.

Did they forget the Astros signed Pudge Rodriguez? That Theriot was only 22/35 on stolen base attempts last year? Not sure what it was. But even if Bradley walks or singles, Ramirez was next at-bat. I like Hawkins’ chances to implode there, but we did’t get to see it. Valverde came in the for the 9th and the Astros won it in the 10th.

“This is a premature call, but you’ve got to be impressed with the 17-9 record since Manuel replaced Willie Randolph on June 17. He has enabled an uptight clubhouse to relax and is riding a 10-game winning streak after Thursday’s victory in Cincinnati.”

Maybe he meant Manager of the Month. Because MOY is definitely premature. It’s all good times and wedding cake when you replace a manager with a losing record. Let’s see Manuel in New York in late-August and September before he’s anointed as the best skipper in the NL.

As for me, I don’t see how you can choose anyone other than Lou Piniella or Tony La Russa. Piniella has had the Cubs in 1st place for most of the 1st half. And La Russa has led his Cards from pillar to post into one one of the great stories of 2008.

[tags]Cubs, Cardinals, Lou Piniella, Tony La Russa, Mets, Jerry Manuel[/tags]

Part of me says this is just how Lou is. After all, he did use 125 different lineups last year. And maybe he’s just trying to get his big bat going. But another part of me says that it shows lack of conviction, and that Lou might have lost a little cred in the clubhouse with such a quick readjustment.

He also said he’s trying to protect Soriano’s legs, but if they didn’t heal during an entire offseason, I can’t believe they’ve gotten better after 2 games.

And let’s talk about that too. Part of the great allure of Soriano was his ability to steal bases. If he can’t do that, we’re left with a leadoff hitter that doesn’t get on-base enough and doesn’t steal very many bags. He can hit for power, but obviously it’s underutilized if he has another year like last year when he hit 33 homers but drove in only 70 runs. I’d rather do something else with $18 million a year.

Point is this: he shouldn’t be batting first or second. He should be hitting 4th or 5th.

At some point when my boss isn’t in the office when I have some leisure time I think I will try and compile a list of the best Piniella quotes of the year. And we will also revisit the stellar Cubs predictions made by Zoner Sports readers and other luminaries.

On the way in I heard “Waddle & Silvy” discussing a rather suspect move by Piniella in Monday’s win over the Cards. In the 7th inning Piniella was calling for a pinch-runner for Daryle Ward. Piniella inexplicably chose Jason Marquis. Not only is Marquis a vital cog in the rotation, he’s the starter for today’s game!

Lou needs a history lesson. Strange and frightful things happen to the Cubs for no good reason. It’s best not to ask for trouble. I don’t even like it when he pinch-hits pitchers, let alone uses them for pinch-runners.

With the Cubs pounding the Rockies 10-2 after 6 innings, Piniella decides to remove Ted Lilly. Lilly was scheduled to lead off the 7th and had thrown 127 pitches to get through those 6 innings, so Piniella pinch-hits for him. Solid. But…

Piniella had yet to use any of his bench so I was absolutely shocked when I saw who was strolling up to the plate to hit for Lilly. Carlos Zambrano. Are you kidding me?

Call it overreacting, but how Cubs would it have been if Zambrano were to get injured in a totally meaningless situation? Big Z was up there taking some mighty hacks too.

I don’t see Jim Hendry as the meddling type of GM, especially with a veteran manager like Piniella. But here’s hoping that’s a topic of conversation in their next chat. If it’s a very close game or an extra-inning affair, it would be acceptable. But with a full bench and a 10-2 lead? Just dumb. Marquis is a good hitter too. Send him up there.

[tags]Cubs, Lou Piniella, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, MLB[/tags]

Lilly was stellar: 7 innings, allowing only 3 hits and one walk while striking out 9. His game score was 75, 4th best in the NL so far this season. He threw 101 pitches and 70 of them were strikes. Piniella is calling for pitchers to throw strikes. Lilly did it. Piniella will keep uttering the throw strikes mantra to get it to sink in. I hope it overtakes “You are undermining the troops” as the number one soundbite in America.

Lilly then gave way to steady Bob Howry, who mowed the Reds down in the 8th. Lou called on Dempster to start the 9th. Cubs announcer Len Kasper said it was the perfect scenario for Demp’s 1st save attempt of the season. Agreed. A 3-run league on a freezing cold night. But I tell you right now that Cub fandom was biting nails and “here we go”-ing when Dempster walked Edwin Encarnacion.

Piniella came out instead of Rothschild and I think said the grandaddy of all swears a few times. It was crisp and to the point. It was mint. There was nothing defeatist in his stroll to the mound. No massaging of his pitcher. Just the hard dirt. I applauded. Perhaps we make too much of these things. But to see Piniella’s demeanor and how he delivered the message was quite different than what we’ve been accustomed to.

Dempster, who looks like he lost at least 20 pounds, finished the job. Cubs win. It was a great ballgame. Yes it’s early, but it’s hard not to like Piniella.
[tags]Cubs, Lou Piniella, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly[/tags]